Nigeria’s state governments have gained substantially more fiscal resources, but the World Bank says the test now is whether spending improves people’s lives. In its October Nigeria Development Update, the bank reported that gross federation revenue rose 69% in real terms between 2023 and 2025.
Aggregate state revenue increased by about 93% in real terms over the same period, while state expenditure rose roughly 92%. The share of expenditure devoted to capital projects climbed from 46% to 61%, with transport infrastructure receiving a large part of the increase.
The bank said health, education and social protection spending also rose in cash terms, but less quickly than infrastructure. Education’s share of total spending fell from 14.9% in 2021 to 12.1% in 2025; health’s share was broadly steady at around 7%.
The report estimates that Nigeria’s economy grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026. It argues that stronger accountability, efficient spending and better delivery of basic services are needed for revenue gains to translate into jobs and living standards.
Source: World Bank Nigeria Development Update (published 8 October 2026).
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