By Kenneth D. Johnson
The Expiration of AGOA
On September 30, 2025, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) officially expired, ending 25 years of preferential trade relations between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa. AGOA provided duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 6,500 products from eligible African countries, fostering economic growth, job creation, and deeper commercial ties (USTR).
While AGOA strengthened African industries and diversified exports, it did not directly govern the trade of critical minerals. This omission is increasingly significant given today’s strategic competition over mineral supply chains. The expiration of AGOA creates both risks and opportunities: uncertainty for existing trade but also the chance to design a renewed framework that integrates critical minerals into U.S.-Africa trade in a way that benefits both sides.
The Importance of Critical Minerals
Critical minerals are indispensable to advanced technologies, renewable energy systems, and defense industries. Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves of these resources:
Cobalt: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounts for roughly 73% of global cobalt mine output, essential for lithium-ion batteries powering electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. The United States is 100% import reliant on cobalt, highlighting the urgency of secure, diversified supply chains (USGS, 2024).
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): South Africa produces about 80% of global PGMs, critical for catalytic converters, hydrogen fuel cells, and aerospace applications (USGS, 2023).
Manganese: South Africa holds approximately 70% of known manganese reserves and is the world’s largest producer, vital for steelmaking and increasingly for battery technologies (USGS, 2024).
These resources are not just abundant in Africa — they are concentrated there. For U.S. industries seeking diversification and resilience, Africa represents both a necessity and an opportunity.
Competition and Concentration Risks
Global demand for critical minerals is intensifying, with electric vehicle adoption, renewable energy deployment, and semiconductor manufacturing all driving exponential growth. Yet supply chains are already under strain. Refining and processing of many minerals are concentrated in a single country, creating systemic bottlenecks and strategic vulnerabilities.
For the U.S., this poses a dual challenge: securing physical access to raw materials and ensuring they can be processed and delivered through reliable, diversified channels. Without frameworks that strengthen U.S.-Africa mineral trade, American industries risk exposure to price volatility, geopolitical shocks, and supply disruptions.
Impact on U.S. Industries
The U.S. remains heavily import-dependent for critical minerals. Cobalt is a vivid example: 100% of U.S. cobalt is imported, even though it is essential for batteries, aerospace alloys, and defense applications (USGS, 2024). Industries from semiconductors to aerospace to renewable energy cannot afford disruptions.
AGOA’s expiration does not immediately alter mineral access, since the act did not explicitly cover them. However, its absence highlights the gap: without preferential agreements, African exports of essential inputs could become costlier, less predictable, and less competitive compared to other suppliers.
Mutual Benefits of AGOA
AGOA was always intended as a mutually beneficial framework. For African economies, it created industrial footholds:
Kenya’s textile exports to the U.S. grew from $55 million in 2001 to $603 million in 2022, representing 67.6% of Kenya’s total U.S. exports (Kohan Textile Journal, 2023).
Ethiopia’s apparel exports rose from $10.4 million in 2010 to $276.7 million in 2021, with nearly half entering duty-free under AGOA (International Growth Centre, 2022).
Nigeria’s agricultural exports to the U.S. reached $118 million in 2023, a 37% increase from 2022 (USTR, 2023).
For the U.S., AGOA meant strengthened trade ties, expanded access to emerging markets, and investment opportunities in fast-growing African industries.
The Opportunity of Reauthorization
The expiration of AGOA is not just a setback; it is also a chance to reimagine the framework. A renewed AGOA could:
Explicitly incorporate critical minerals into its provisions, ensuring reliable, diversified supply chains for U.S. industries.
Encourage local value-added processing in Africa, enabling job creation, industrialization, and fairer value capture before export.
Promote sustainable mining and infrastructure development, strengthening long-term environmental and governance outcomes.
Reinforce broader industrial partnerships in textiles, agriculture, automotive, and beyond.
Such a framework would be win-win: Africa gains deeper industrial capacity and fairer participation in global value chains, while the U.S. secures diversified, reliable access to resources essential for its energy transition, technological innovation, and national security.
Conclusion
The sunset of AGOA marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-Africa relations. While its original design focused on manufactured and agricultural exports, the next phase could — and should — reflect the new strategic realities of the 21st century.
By explicitly incorporating critical minerals into a reauthorized AGOA, the U.S. and Africa can transform a gap into an opportunity: strengthening supply chain security, reducing concentration risks, and fostering sustainable economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
About the Author
Kenneth D. Johnson is Principal at Devconia, LLC, providing strategic advisory services in international business development, value-chain management, and strategic marketing. With over 20 years of experience, he has led transformative projects across multiple regions, including value chain initiatives at the African Development Bank, and held senior marketing and business development roles with Accenture and PricewaterhouseCoopers in New York City. A recognized thought leader, he regularly shares insights through speaking engagements, conferences, and high-level forums on sustainable economic growth and corporate strategy.
