El Nino: Three countries, three risks

Tainã Mansani

Across Africa, communities are preparing for another potentially difficult weather season. From increased flood risk in Tanzania, to unpredictable rainfall in Niger, and the threat of drought and water shortages in South Africa, El Nino could have very different consequences across the continent.

In Tanzania, the biggest concern is heavy rain, flooding and landslides. For residents, memories of past flooding remain fresh, but authorities say high-risk areas are being identified, with possible relocations planned before the heaviest rains arrive.

Thousands of kilometers away in Niger, the concern is less predictable — because both drought and flooding are possible. Agriculture and livestock are vital to livelihoods, but changing rainfall patterns are making it harder for farmers to plan. And among young people, there is also uncertainty about what El Nino actually means.

Further south, South Africa is bracing for a potentially strong El Nino. Here, the biggest threats are heat, drought, water shortages and crop losses. The timing is critical. The expected peak of the event overlaps with the country’s main crop-growing season. Previous El Nino events have brought hot and dry conditions, forcing farmers to make difficult decisions about planting, grain production and livestock.