When COVID-19 hit Kenya, decision-makers faced a critical challenge: how to respond quickly to a fast-moving crisis without reliable, locally grounded data.
Global models offered some guidance, but they often failed to reflect local realities.
That gap is what the Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA) was built to address.
Founded during the pandemic and based at the University of Nairobi, CEMA has rapidly grown into a pan-African centre of excellence, bringing together experts in epidemiology, data science, statistics, and public health to generate insights that directly inform policy and decision-making.
At the core of its work is the use of advanced data analytics and modelling techniques, increasingly supported by artificial intelligence and computational tools, to turn complex health data into actionable insights.
CEMA’s impact in Kenya and across Africa
“CEMA was started when COVID-19 had hit the country and decision-makers urgently needed answers on how fast would the virus spread, which interventions would work, how the health system should prepare etc.
We worked closely with the ministry of Health in Kenya to help turn data into real time insights, guiding response strategies, resource allocation and public health measures when it mattered the most.
Today, CEMA continues to transform fragmented human and animal data into actionable insights. By combining advanced modelling and clinical research with local expertise, CEMA generates timely, Africa-specific evidence that informs policy decisions, strengthens health systems, while also building the next generation of African scientists.” — CEMA team
Since its inception, CEMA has produced more than 150 peer-reviewed papers and technical reports, contributing to global knowledge while remaining deeply rooted in local impact. During COVID-19, its modelling work helped guide response strategies, offering real-time insights tailored to Kenya’s specific context.
But its work goes far beyond a single pandemic.
Using data platforms and predictive modelling tools, CEMA supports governments in tackling a wide range of health challenges. Its work includes modelling the spread of neglected tropical diseases, analysing maternal mortality trends, and supporting vaccine rollout strategies through evidence-based targeting.
The organisation is also helping optimise health systems by applying data analytics to determine where medical equipment and services are most needed, improving accessibility and efficiency across the healthcare system.
Why locally led data and modelling matter for decision-making
“Local data tells the true story, it reflects the realities on the ground including how people live, move, and access care making it far more reliable for decision making.
Modelling then takes this a step further, helping to predict how diseases spread and what interventions will have the greatest impact.
Locally led data and modelling enable faster and smarter responses not just in emergencies, but in ongoing disease prevention and control.” — CEMA team
One of its key innovations is the use of real-time data systems, such as contributions to the Kenya Health Information System dashboard, which allow policymakers to monitor trends and respond more quickly. These systems combine large datasets with analytical tools that can detect patterns, forecast outcomes, and support faster decision-making.
With a multidisciplinary team of over 80 staff spanning research and technical fields, CEMA reflects the growing importance of combining disciplines such as computer science, epidemiology, and social sciences. This integrated approach allows the organisation to not only analyse data, but also understand the human and environmental factors behind it.
Its work is also expanding into emerging areas such as climate and health, where data-driven models are used to study how environmental changes influence disease patterns, food systems, and community resilience.
The importance of partnerships such as with the Gates Foundation
“CEMA’s strength lies in collaboration. Its multidisciplinary team of infectious disease specialists, epidemiologists, data scientists, economists, computer scientists, software engineers, and social scientists work together with government institutions such as the Ministry of health and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development through the Directorate of Veterinary Services. With support from partners such as the Gates Foundation, these long standing collaborations ensure that evidence does not sit on shelves but shapes real policy and practice.
CEMA also partners with research and academic institutions across Africa and globally including University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) and the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH) to support MSc fellowships.
Through in-service fellowships for policy makers and participation in national technical committees, CEMA is embedded where decisions are made, amplifying its impact across Kenya and the region.” — CEMA team
This emphasis on locally led, technology-driven innovation was evident at the 2026 Gates Foundation Kenya Partners Convening, where CEMA showcased how data and modelling are helping shape smarter, faster, and more effective public health decisions across the continent.
As Africa continues to navigate evolving health challenges, from infectious diseases to climate-linked risks, the ability to harness data, technology, and AI will be critical.
Institutions like CEMA are demonstrating that Africa is not just a consumer of global innovation, but a leader in building data-driven solutions that are shaping the future of public health.
